2025 Economic and Market Outlook
A new year is often associated with transformation. Even so, the degree of change ahead in 2025 looks unusually large for the U.S., with potential shifts in trade policy, immigration, regulation and more.
And that’s just from the transition in the U.S. presidency. There are also more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve on tap, along with continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine to consider.
To provide perspective on these topics and more, the investment management team at BOK Financial has prepared its 2025 annual outlook, Moving forward in a changing world, as a downloadable report, supplemental articles and a webinar.
The U.S. economy
U.S. economic growth will likely remain positive in 2025 but slower than in 2024. The overall strength in the job market and robust consumer spending should drive growth, but slowing new job creation and the potential effects of proposed tariffs and tighter immigration controls may hinder growth.
International
The path to lower interest rates—including whether we will see any echo waves of inflation—will be a major factor in international markets, but the bigger story may be U.S. tariffs, how they impact global trade and the speed of deglobalization in general.
Financial markets
2025 will likely be a good year for the equity market, especially if the Federal Reserve can cut rates two or three times while the economy is still growing. However, escalating geopolitical conflicts and returning inflation remain risks.
Energy
Energy, or rather access to energy, is key to economic growth and prosperity. Although the energy market is always volatile, making it difficult to ascertain what’s ahead, there are key indicators and drivers to watch, including potential changes to regulation.
Meet our experts
BOK Financial's experts share their diverse knowledge to break down complex topics, provide timely updates on the state of our economy and dig into industry trends. Get to know these interesting individuals representing just some of our company's areas of expertise.
J. Brian Henderson, CFA
J. Brian Henderson is responsible for leading the Alternative Investments group, Strategic Investment Advisors, and Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc.
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Steve Wyett, CFA
Steve M. Wyett, CFA is responsible for tracking and communicating about economic indicators affecting the investment climate and overseeing BOK Financial's investment management message.
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Matthew Stephani, CFA
Matt Stephani is a successful, highly motivated financial markets professional with 20 years of experience managing public equities across all sectors.
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