2024 Midyear Outlook
As we enter the last half of 2024, we now have more clarity around just how resilient the U.S. economy is—despite the high-rate environment—and what makes the situation now so different from recent years.
However, many questions remain as we await the Fed’s first rate cut and posit what will happen in the job market, energy market, and broader U.S. economy.
To provide perspective on these topics and more, the investment management team at BOK Financial has prepared an interactive video, online articles and downloadable report.
Video was recorded prior to President Biden ending his 2024 reelection bid.
The job market
Overall, the job market has remained strong and supportive of the U.S. consumer, especially in light of how long we’ve been in a high-rate environment. Looking forward, there may be less demand for labor, which should result in less inflationary pressure, without a sharp increase in unemployment. However, labor markets can turn suddenly.
Inflation and the Federal Reserve
With economic growth remaining robust and inflation remaining above target, the Fed has been keeping rates higher for longer. This could ultimately tip the economy into recession, though it is still unlikely at this point. Instead, we expect growth to moderate but remain resilient.
AI, energy and natural resources
One way an economy can grow is through enhancements to productivity, such as through developments in AI. In fact, we believe AI has tremendous potential—if we have the energy and other natural resources to support it. As a result, U.S. energy policy today will have a lasting impact on our competitive position in the world for decades to come.
Financial markets
We are optimistic that economic growth will support financial markets through the remainder of 2024. That said, when stock and credit markets are priced as high as they are, it doesn’t leave much cushion for a financial slowdown, if one were to occur. There is always the potential for outlier scenarios such as escalated geopolitical conflicts.
Meet our experts
BOK Financial's experts share their diverse knowledge to break down complex topics, provide timely updates on the state of our economy and dig into industry trends. Get to know these interesting individuals representing just some of our company's areas of expertise.
J. Brian Henderson, CFA
J. Brian Henderson is responsible for leading the Alternative Investments group, Strategic Investment Advisors, and Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc.
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Steve Wyett, CFA
Steve M. Wyett, CFA is responsible for tracking and communicating about economic indicators affecting the investment climate and overseeing BOK Financial's investment management message.
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Matthew Stephani, CFA
Matt Stephani is a successful, highly motivated financial markets professional with 20 years of experience managing public equities across all sectors.
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